Minnesota back in a drought

Lauren Bethke

The weather here in Minneapolis has been extreme recently, and drought is something we’ve experienced every year. Although the 2024 drought was not as severe as previous years, rainfall patterns were unusual, contributing to a difficult growing season. Read on for a recap and explainer on this year’s drought conditions and some preliminary predictions for next year.
First - what is a drought? Drought occurs when there is a prolonged period of very dry or hot weather (or both), causing a serious hydrologic imbalance. Under normal conditions, water continuously flows throughout the ecosystem, with precipitation regularly replenishing water levels in the soil and below the ground. However, during a drought, this cycle becomes unbalanced, and it can be difficult to return to normal conditions. When soil is extremely dry, it often begins to repel water. Counterintuitively, this means that a big rainstorm after a period of drought can be a bad thing because the water may run off the surface of dry soil rather than soaking in - which can cause flooding. Multiple smaller rain events are more effective for maintaining the flow of water throughout the ecosystem.
There is some degree of drought in Minnesota nearly every year, with some years more or less severe than others. When talking about drought conditions, it’s important to begin by looking at winter weather in the previous year. As you probably remember, the winter of 2023 in Minneapolis was historically warm, with very little snowfall. There was serious concern in early 2024 that this year’s drought would be extremely severe because we did not have the usual amount of melting snow to moisten the soil in the spring.
Luckily, early spring rains replenished the soil and we avoided severe drought early in the 2024 season. Spring 2024 was the first time in three years where there was no drought occurring anywhere in the state. However, summer saw historic rainfall totals. Because the soil was already saturated with water, this caused flooding in some parts of the state.
Starting in September, precipitation began to slow down significantly, and it has been a warm, dry fall. Because of weak wind patterns, storms have shifted course and missed the Twin Cities to the north or south. As of the writing of this article in mid-November, the majority of the state has returned to a mild to moderate drought, and 45% of the state is in a severe drought - even though we have experienced about four inches more rain than average, over the course of the year.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is the federal agency that works on monitoring and forecasting the weather and studying climate conditions, among other duties. You may have heard that it will be a “La Niña” winter, which refers to temperature changes in the Pacific Ocean that generally cause warm temperatures in the southern hemisphere and cold temperatures in the northern hemisphere. Because of this likely weather pattern, the NOAA is predicting that Minnesota will experience colder than average temperatures and higher than average snow totals this winter.
So, what should you do to give your yard and garden the best chance at success?
Continue to water your perennial plants, trees, and shrubs until the ground freezes. Stop watering when average nighttime temperatures are in the low 30s. In the spring, keep a close eye on changing conditions. If we have more snow this winter as predicted, the melting snow should help moisten the ground and irrigate plants in the spring. However, if it is a cold spring and the ground is late to thaw, melting snow may run off the soil rather than soaking in. It’s important to keep many factors in mind when deciding when to begin planting and watering in the spring.
Many factors influence drought conditions each year, and changes in our climate have only made these patterns more extreme and unpredictable.
For the latest science-based predictions and advice, I would recommend following information from the University of Minnesota Extension Yard and Garden website, the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, the NOAA, and the National Weather Service. Happy gardening!